A Framework to Assess Global Uncertainty

Guillaume Caumon and André JOURNEL. ( 2004 )
in: Proc. 24th Gocad Meeting, Nancy

Abstract

Appraisal of new hydrocarbon fields is a high risk exercise, where large investments are based on very sparse exploration data. At such an early stage, quantifying the uncertainty on a global petrophysical parameter such as the net-to-gross (proportion of reservoir facies) cannot be done with traditional statistical approaches that, typically, assume data independence and cannot easily account for the contribution of seismic data and, most critically, geological interpretation. We propose a framework to assess global uncertainty in early exploration. This framework accounts for the different alternative geological scenarios resulting from geological interpretation, and addresses the potential bias induced by the preferential location of appraisal wells in high-pay zones. Application to a large synthetic 3D reservoir demonstrates the proposed methodology.

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    BibTeX Reference

    @inproceedings{35_caumon1,
 abstract = { Appraisal of new hydrocarbon fields is a high risk exercise, where large investments are based
on very sparse exploration data. At such an early stage, quantifying the uncertainty on a global
petrophysical parameter such as the net-to-gross (proportion of reservoir facies) cannot be done with
traditional statistical approaches that, typically, assume data independence and cannot easily account
for the contribution of seismic data and, most critically, geological interpretation.
We propose a framework to assess global uncertainty in early exploration. This framework accounts
for the different alternative geological scenarios resulting from geological interpretation, and
addresses the potential bias induced by the preferential location of appraisal wells in high-pay zones.
Application to a large synthetic 3D reservoir demonstrates the proposed methodology. },
 author = { Caumon, Guillaume AND JOURNEL, André },
 booktitle = { Proc. 24th Gocad Meeting, Nancy },
 title = { A Framework to Assess Global Uncertainty },
 year = { 2004 }
}